HIV Spread: Some Statistical Results
The spread of AIDS causative agent HIV has now entered the third decade. The infection was first noticed in 1981 in the USA. Within 2 decades, it has quickly grown to the level of an endemic. Unlike several other infectious diseases, AIDS endemiology is interdisciplinary, surrounded by many complex socio-economic, psychological, legal, behavioural and statistical issues. Knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible intervention strategies aimed at its control.
This article discusses:
i) Important special features of the spread mechanism which render the syndrome a lethal and silent killer.
ii) A method to evaluate probability of infection in a heterosexual relation.
iii) A method for estimating HIV infections in perinatal transmissions, and
iv) The Indian HIV perspective and makes a few suggestions to control the reckless spread of HIV across the country.
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