HIV Spread: Some Statistical Results


  • T. Srivenkataramana Bangalore University
  • C. Nagaraja Rao Bangalore University



AIDS, Estimation, Heterosexuality, HIV, Transmission


The spread of AIDS causative agent HIV has now entered the third decade. The infection was first noticed in 1981 in the USA. Within 2 decades, it has quickly grown to the level of an endemic. Unlike several other infectious diseases, AIDS endemiology is interdisciplinary, surrounded by many complex socio-economic, psychological, legal, behavioural and statistical issues. Knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible intervention strategies aimed at its control.
This article discusses:
i) Important special features of the spread mechanism which render the syndrome a lethal and silent killer.
ii) A method to evaluate probability of infection in a heterosexual relation.
iii) A method for estimating HIV infections in perinatal transmissions, and
iv) The Indian HIV perspective and makes a few suggestions to control the reckless spread of HIV across the country.


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