HIV Spread: Some Statistical Results

  • T. Srivenkataramana Bangalore University
  • C. Nagaraja Rao Bangalore University
Keywords: AIDS, Estimation, Heterosexuality, HIV, Transmission

Abstract

The spread of AIDS causative agent HIV has now entered the third decade. The infection was first noticed in 1981 in the USA. Within 2 decades, it has quickly grown to the level of an endemic. Unlike several other infectious diseases, AIDS endemiology is interdisciplinary, surrounded by many complex socio-economic, psychological, legal, behavioural and statistical issues. Knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible intervention strategies aimed at its control.
This article discusses:
i) Important special features of the spread mechanism which render the syndrome a lethal and silent killer.
ii) A method to evaluate probability of infection in a heterosexual relation.
iii) A method for estimating HIV infections in perinatal transmissions, and
iv) The Indian HIV perspective and makes a few suggestions to control the reckless spread of HIV across the country.

References

Bongaarts, J. (1989). A model of the spread of HIV infection and demographic impact of AIDS. Statistics in Medicine, 8 , 103-120.

Centre for Disease Control. (1982). Koposis sacroma and puenmo cystics pneumonia among homosexual men in New York City. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly reports, 30 .

National AIDS Control Organization (NACO). (1994). HIV surveillance in India, a report.

Rao, C., & Srivenkataramana, T. (2002). A model for organization of HIV/AIDS database in India. Journal of Indian Medical Association .

Rao, C., & Srivenkataramana, T. (2001). Estimation of HIV infections in India: An alternative to back-calculation. Current Science, 8 , 1302-1307.

Rao, C., & Srivenkataramana, T. (1999). Statistical methodology an AIDS projections. Conference of ISMS & IBSIR, (pp. 215-227).

Published
2002-07-12
Section
Research Accounts