Mathematical analysis on the dynamics of COVID-19 in India using SIR Epidemic Model

Abstract

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), the outbreak of which emerged from the Wuhan city of China, is a matter of huge concern for the entire human race. The disease as on August 4, 2020 has invaded around 18.6 million population causing over half a million deaths worldwide and counting.  To understand the dynamics of this communicable disease and its transmission among the people in India, a mathematical model governed by ordinary differential equations with appropriate conditions has been established. The model is based on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) scheme to understand the behavior of susceptible, infective and removed (both recovered and deceased) population in India. The resulting model has been simulated using MATLAB software. The results obtained in this model are interpreted graphically and least squares method is used to predict the transmission rate, recovery rate and mortality rate in the absence of any vaccine/immunization.