A Gaussian Modelling Study of Recurring Waves of New Covid-19 Infections in Indian States

Abstract

Countries are working very hard to control the spread of new Covid-19 infections. When the number of cases comes down the people tend to relax controls quickly. This has resulted in the second wave of infections. European countries especially France, Italy, UK, and Germany have clearly exhibited this (bigger) second wave after noticing the low-level of infections in the earlier stages. US is now going through a third wave. In India while Delhi is ending its third wave, many states such as Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have now begun showing clear signs of the second wave; the possibility of a second wave is also exhibited in the case of Karnataka state. We have analyzed these trends using Gaussian model combinations and point out the need to adhere to all safety norms for many more months as we feel that more waves are still possible but unpredictable at this time.