Modelling Analysis of Covid-19 Infections in India and Prediction of Daily Cases in 2021
Keywords:Covid - 19 Data, Least square model fitting, prediction of fall times in 2021
In this paper the data for dailyconfirmed new casesconcerning the rise and fall of the Covid-19 (aka, coronavirus) pandemic infection in India for the nine month period starting from the first March 2020 has been subjected to a non linear least square fitting analysis using Gaussian, Skewed-Gaussian, Moffat, andVoigt model functions.The fitting parameters determined by the Python software package LMFIT are then used to compare the predicted remission times of Covid-19pandemic during 2021. It is found that while the Gaussian, Skewed-Gaussian and Moffat models predictlowlevels byabout March/April 2021; Voigt and other models predict longertimes to reach samelow endemic levels.
Copyright (c) 2020 M N Anandaram, N G Puttaswamy
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